Thursday, 27 July 2017

19. CUE IN THE RACK

Round 18 saw some interesting scorelines from teams lower on the table.

   North down to Essendon by 27.
   Gold Coast done by 54.
   Fremantle beaten by 52.
   Carlton losing to Brisbane by 30.

Three of the bottom four losing by an average margin of 37 points, Four of the bottom 7, average losing margin of 40 points.

Among the bottom 7 was also
   Collingwood with a win over the already queuing at the Tullamarine terminal Eagles.
   Hawthorn who defeated Freo over there, making the case for the Dockers more flimsy.
   And of course Brisbane, who are selling hope and culture building.


Big long season it is and its hard for the inexperienced sides to maintain focus and fitness.
Yep.
That is what it was.


The Wash-Up.


All went swimmingly until the tips struck an iceberg on Sunday. 
That's a Bundy-esque five count, as the season tipping performance is now 'counted out'.
HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTIONRESULTRANKING PT CHANGES
AdelaidevGeelongAdelAdelby25pts69Adelby21ptsAdel-1Geel2
EssendonvNorth MelbourneDockEsseby6pts55Esseby27ptsEsse30Nort-23
MelbournevPort AdelaideMCGPortby7pts45Melbby23ptsMelb11Port-11
W Bulldogs/FFCvGold CoastCazaW Buby24pts69W Buby54ptsW Bu10Gold-13
Sydney/SMFCvSt KildaSCGSydnby34pts75Sydnby42ptsSydn10St K-4
FremantlevHawthornSubiHawtby3pts47Hawtby52ptsFrem-18Hawt25
RichmondvGWSMCGGWSby7pts45Richby19ptsRich9GWS-20
CollingwoodvWest CoastDockWestby1pts49Collby8ptsColl3West-11
Brisbane LionsvCarltonGabbCarlby10pts42Brisby30ptsBris19Carl-15


Essendon win with the tip against North, and still gain lots of points as their momentum over the last months continues to convert to positive rankings points gains. Don't cash out now Dons.

This also explains why on the CoSPYES page the FMI predictions have Essendon finishing in 7th, while the other forecasters peak at 8 tops.

Similarly, the recent North Melbourne performances lower their expectations and are expected to finish last.
Will be fun times in round 23 at the Gabba.



AFTER ROUND18ptstable
1Adelaide1355-10
2Sydney/SMFC1264101
3Port Adelaide1262-11-1
4Geelong124021
5GWS1229-20-1
6West Coast1160-110
7W Bulldogs/FFC1130100
8Melbourne1099110
9Essendon1086302
10Hawthorn1082250
11Richmond10739-2
12St Kilda1042-40
13Collingwood104230
14North Melbourne979-230
15Carlton904-150
16Fremantle887-180
17Gold Coast878-130
18Brisbane Lions720190


Only a few minor changes above.

The Week Ahead.

Speaking of North, will Bellerive save them from another loss? Lets see how Melbourne go too, as they are still a chance for the top 8.
HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTION
HawthornvSydney/SMFCMCGSydnby7pts45
North MelbournevMelbourneBellMelbby13pts40
GWSvFremantleSydSGWSby49pts83
Port AdelaidevSt KildaAdelPortby36pts76
CarltonvGeelongDockGeelby35pts24
Gold CoastvRichmondCarrRichby8pts44
W Bulldogs/FFCvEssendonDockW Buby5pts54
CollingwoodvAdelaideMCGAdelby20pts34
West CoastvBrisbane LionsSubiWestby59pts88

Also, the Bulldogs vs Essendon has the potential to end a teams run for the finals. Really, is too close to call, but the data says the Dogs, just.
Enjoy your tipping and footy.

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