Tuesday, 12 September 2017

25. THE POUNCE

First weeks of finals footy have been done, and they delivered a few surprises.
A collapse of an early flag favourite. A grind over quarters before a late burst, and a game won in an early burst. And finally, an overtime win.

As an aside, the whole 'Cats home final' chat is a nonsense. The argument around home finals at Kardina Park was never rolled out in the 5 years that Geelong won three flags.

The Wash-Up

Two winners from the four games. Geelong by 4 showed that game to be a coin toss and until the 10min mark of the last quarter it was still in the balance.

HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTIONRESULTRANKING PT CHANGES
AdelaidevGWSAdelAdelby27pts71Adelby36ptsAdel3GWS-4
GeelongvRichmondMCGGeelby4pts53Richby51ptsGeel-19Rich40
Port AdelaidevWest CoastAdelPortby20pts65Westby2ptsPort-8West12
Sydney/SMFCvEssendonSCGSydnby44pts81Sydnby65ptsSydn25Esse-8


The magnitude of Richmond's win boosted their ranking points by 40 points and lifted then to 3rd place. The now lead a set of teams all split by around 50 points.


AFTER ROUNDQ/EFptstable
1Sydney/SMFC1387251
2Adelaide13673-1
3Richmond1226403
4GWS1222-40
5Port Adelaide1221-8-2
6Geelong1203-19-1
7West Coast1172120
8Collingwood10940
9W Bulldogs/FFC10890
10Hawthorn10890
11Melbourne10710
12Essendon1057-80
13St Kilda10540
14North Melbourne9370
15Carlton9050
16Fremantle8560
17Brisbane Lions7660
18Gold Coast7600

Port Adelaide will finish the season on 1221 points, and have over the year improved 49 points for the year. Moderate.
Essendon finish on 1057 points, up 313 points over the year. Given last year was CAS affected, this improvement is not unexpected. Comparing back to 2015, Essendon have still improved about 100 points. All in all a positive season.

The Week Ahead.


GWS should be favourites against West Coast, and the three goal margin below could be a fair assessment. But it really depends on whch GWS turn up.

The 7 point margin with Sydney is interesting. The Swans are the best ranked and all but universally considered to have the best formline. Geelong will be seeking redemption.

HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTION
GWSvWest CoastSydSGWSby18pts64
GeelongvSydney/SMFCMCGSydnby7pts45


After the weekend passed, the finals positions expected ahead are as per the table here.

SEPTEMBER RUNS
EF / QFSEMISPRELIMGRAND F
Adelaide10010069
Geelong100100221
Richmond10010091
GWS100100809
Port Adelaide100
Sydney/SMFC1001007830
Essendon100
West Coast10010020
Units above are % chance of playing each week of finals


With Sydney and Adelaide higher ranked, they were the two most likely into the Grand Final, but with the other half of the finals schedule opening up after this weekend, Richmond have now progressed to a grand finalist favourite.

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