Wednesday, 23 May 2018

10. MELBUILD

'Mons.

There is not much being written about the Demons, but there is an interesting trend developing.

For starters, across 7 of the 9 footy data predictors, the Dees are expected to sit solidly in the 8 come the end of year.



Melbourne also has been in pretty decent form over the last month. As part of the FMI system, teams are allocated ranking points as published, which change game on game. There is also an 'in game' rank per week which is not part of the public data.

With the Dees over the last few weeks, this has been consistently above their own rank, and enough to put have them considered as "playing as the 3rd or 4th best team' in the league.
And last week against Carlton? Well in that game they were at 'Hawthorn three-peat' level.

Of course, these calculations do take opponents rankings into account. Melbourne in the last 4 weeks met two lower-rated, and two comparatively even-rated teams. So if you are to be fair, they must face stronger opposition to be considered serious contenders.

In the two games played against much better rated opposition (Geelong and Richmond), their 'in game' rating was on par with their actual rating, so that pair of data-points suggests they are able to hold to a reasonable level without being embarrassed.

So while everyone this week is on the "look out because here comes the West Coast Eagles" bandwagon, the Demons of Melbourne are building something of substance.


The City. The Football Culture.

Jobe Watson cites losing the love for footy and Mellbourne, and club negligence. And we kinda all knew that.
More importantly, he seems to be headed to a better space.


The Wash Up.

Boldness of prediction is the sword the FMI system lives or dies by.

PREDICTIONRESULTRANKING PT CHANGES
Adelby47pts83Adelby37ptsAdel-11W Bu3
GWSby18pts36Nortby42ptsNort36GWS-37
Portby43pts20Portby40ptsGold1Port-5
Geelby28pts29Esseby34ptsEsse21Geel-20
Collby20pts35Collby28ptsSt K-16Coll5
Sydnby53pts86Sydnby59ptsSydn2Frem-2
Melbby26pts30Melbby109ptsCarl-24Melb35
Hawtby23pts32Brisby56ptsBris31Hawt-22
Richby3pts48Westby47ptsWest30Rich-18

Well that works for the Richmond tip, anyway.


All the rankings.

AFTER ROUND9ptstable
1Richmond1363-180
2Sydney/SMFC135920
3Adelaide1333-110
4West Coast1265301
5Geelong1258-20-1
6Port Adelaide1211-51
7GWS1196-37-1
8Melbourne1153352
9Hawthorn1147-22-1
10Collingwood11425-1
11North Melbourne1084360
12Essendon1019210
13W Bulldogs/FFC99430
14Fremantle944-20
15St Kilda926-160
16Brisbane Lions849311
17Carlton834-24-1
18Gold Coast78810

Oh look. Melbourne sneak into the top 8 ranked teams, among a cluster in an around the same mark.

Also, "Brisbane: the best 18th team ever" chat... is it still a thing?

The Week Ahead.


TIPS FOR ROUND10
HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTIONRESULTRANKING PT CHANGES
CollingwoodvW Bulldogs/FFCDockCollby15pts62CollW Bu
RichmondvSt KildaMCGRichby44pts81RichSt K
Brisbane LionsvSydney/SMFCGabbSydnby39pts22BrisSydn
GeelongvCarltonKardGeelby42pts80GeelCarl
GWSvEssendonSydSGWSby30pts72GWSEsse
HawthornvWest CoastDockHawtby1pt50HawtWest
MelbournevAdelaideTraeAdelby18pts36MelbAdel
FremantlevNorth MelbournePertNortby2pts48FremNort


Coin tosses on two, and possibly 4 games. This footy thing - its not easy.

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