Tuesday, 19 June 2018

14. SECONDS

As much as the League and the media want to make you think West Coast is second, they are actually first.

LIVE LADDER(MATCH RATIO USED MID ROUND)
TEAMWDLFORAGPCTPTSMR
1West Coast10021160898129.2%400.833
2Richmond10031265937135.0%400.769
3Sydney/SMFC10031148907126.6%400.769
4Melbourne8041277979130.4%320.667
5Collingwood8041150970118.6%320.667
6Port Adelaide8041039913113.8%320.667
7Geelong8051114883126.2%320.615
8North Melbourne7051040881118.0%280.583
9Hawthorn7051028929110.7%280.583
10GWS6151000892112.1%260.542
11Adelaide60710761072100.4%240.462
12Fremantle607985111188.7%240.462
13Essendon507953105790.2%200.417
14W Bulldogs/FFC408833114073.1%160.333
15Gold Coast309752116664.5%120.250
16St Kilda2110880125170.3%100.192
17Brisbane Lions1011913116078.7%40.083
18Carlton1011759122661.9%40.083
Live Ladder sorted by usual AFL rules, but modified for mid-round use with Match Ratio employed


So what the above table does is sort the teams by games won divided by total games played. There are two of the three teams on top with 40 points that have accumulated those points over 13 games. The other has done so over 12 games.
By using match ratio and not bumping one team down using points won, you at least acknowledge that a team (in this case West Coast) have performed better than those on equivalent points.

Doing otherwise is not crediting your follower with enough intelligence to understand return for effort.


The Wash Up

Imagine tipping Carlton an being expected to be taken seriously. 

PREDICTIONRESULTRANKING PT CHANGES
Portby38pts77Portby57ptsPort8W Bu-19
Sydnby19pts65Sydnby15ptsSydn-1West8
Carlby4pts53Fremby57ptsCarl-21Frem20
St Kby7pts44St Kby2ptsGold2St K-10
Hawtby1pts51Hawtby56ptsHawt19Adel-39
Richby8pts43.8Richby18ptsGeel-4Rich4

Also, 2 x 57 and a 56... hello Gigs.


The weekly rankings don't show much of interest, other than Port and Adelaide headed in opposite directions.

AFTER ROUND13ptstable
1Richmond136640
2Sydney/SMFC1348-10
3West Coast128681
4Geelong1280-4-1
5Port Adelaide122682
6Melbourne12220
7Adelaide1197-39-2
8Collingwood11940
9GWS11870
10Hawthorn1143191
11North Melbourne1134-1
12Essendon10330
13Fremantle953201
14W Bulldogs/FFC942-19-1
15St Kilda913-100
16Brisbane Lions8600
17Carlton829-210
18Gold Coast73420


The Week Ahead


No real games of interest here. and that's not just the FMI opinion. The Squiggle accumulation also has all games locked in.
HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTION
West CoastvEssendonPertWestby37pts77
Port AdelaidevMelbourneAdelPortby12pts60
HawthornvGold CoastYorkHawtby53pts85
Brisbane LionsvGWSGabbGWSby21pts34
W Bulldogs/FFCvNorth MelbourneDockNortby19pts35
CollingwoodvCarltonMCGCollby37pts77

Enjoy your football.


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