Sunday, 23 September 2018

27. PENULTIMATE

Yes, the one before the last.


The Wash-Up.

Half right and half wrong.
And 20's all round.

PREDICTIONRESULTRANKING PT CHANGES
Richby15pts62Collby39ptsRich-21Coll21
Westby3pts53Westby66ptsWest20Melb-20


Adjusted rankings for the finals period
Even after Melbourne's loss, they still hold 2nd for the year.


AFTER SFptstable
1Richmond1365-160
2Melbourne1326221
3Geelong1302-11-1
4West Coast1280200
5Collingwood1251201
6GWS1240271
7Sydney/SMFC1210-25-2
8Essendon12021
9Hawthorn1191-12-1


And so basically we have a grand final between 4th and 5th.
Excitement plus has been the hallmark of 2018.


The Week Ahead.

Its the Grand Final and both teams have shown improvement over the year. And in the above ranking table, in an even year it all came down to September.
And the chart above suggest neither team has been exceptional in September, other than the last week.
Awesome.

So the tip for the Final is:

TIP FOR FINALS
- 2018 GRAND FINAL
HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTION
West CoastvCollingwoodMCGWestby3pts52

Eagles by 3, which is a coin toss in reality.


Simulations

The season leads to a coin toss finish. Which is nice. Basically 50/50 here as above.

SEPTEMBER RUNS
TEAMEF / QF'sSEMI'sPRELIM'sG FINALPREMIER
1Richmond100100.0
2West Coast100100.0100.045.9
3Collingwood100100.0100.0100.054.1
4Hawthorn100100.0
5Melbourne100100.0100.0
6Sydney/SMFC100
7GWS100100.0
8Geelong100


Good luck to all involved.

Sunday, 16 September 2018

26. MELBMENTUM

So the League Committee recommends  raft of proposals to the Commission. The Commission now has to choose to satisfy the broadcasters, or be the 'custodians of the game' they profess to be.
October will be the month of reckoning.

The Wash Up

Two from two and again another tip very close to the mark - basically Collingwood is playing 'as expected'. A sub 20 MAE also kicks along the season MAE to 27.3.


PREDICTIONRESULTRANKING PT CHANGES
Melbby13pts40Melbby33ptsHawt-7Melb21
Collby12pts59Collby10ptsColl-1GWS8

Melbourne's impressive form continues... and has implications, as you will see below.


The rankings are further adjusted, and as mentioned, Melbourne have gained 43 points in the two finals games and are now ranked as close to equivalent to Richmond since round 15 (Sydney, -30).

AFTER SFptstable
1Richmond138550
2Melbourne1346431
3Geelong1302-11-1
4West Coast126000
5GWS1240272
6Collingwood1231-10
7Sydney/SMFC1210-25-2
8Essendon12021
9Hawthorn1191-12-1



The Week Ahead

Preliminary Finals week next week, withe the best four teams playing. Although by the FMI rankings its 1st vs 6th and 4th vs 2nd.
The tips.

HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTION
RichmondvCollingwoodMCGRichby15pts62
West CoastvMelbournePertWestby3pts53

The interesting tip above is that West Coast vs Melbourne is now effectively a coin toss. The Eagles HGA all but eaten up by the Demons

And as impressive as that is for Melbourne to now go to Perth with a 50/50 chance, looking at simulating that remainder of the finals shows the Dees form is their kicker.


The September Ahead

Using the standard FMI match simulations, the potential grand finalists are calculated to be as the table below.

With the Perth Prelim a 50/50 game on rankings, the influence of form drives the Demons higher in simulations over the iterations. So the most likely finals matchup is Tigers vs Demons.

GRAND FINAL MATCH-UPS
TEAMMELWCE
1Richmond51.924.3
3Collingwood16.27.6


Listing that below, and extending the predictions to the Grand Final itself, means we have a calculated flag favourite as per the table below. The influence of form.

SEPTEMBER RUNS
TEAMEF / QF'sSEMI'sPRELIM'sG FINALPREMIER
1Richmond100100.076.233.8
2West Coast100100.031.910.1
3Collingwood100100.0100.023.85.8
4Hawthorn100100.0
5Melbourne100100.0100.068.150.3
6Sydney/SMFC100
7GWS100100.0
8Geelong100


"...Should Auld Acquaintance be forgot, Keep your eye on the red and tae blue"
(R Burns, rugged Half Forward for Ayrshire, Scotland).


And it seems the FMI model foresaw this weeks ago.