Thursday, 15 March 2012

IT BEGINS!!! -Round 1

Bollocks to the FlabCup and their half-inflated practice games. All this pre-season 'Footy is back' talk is just peripheral nonsense.

REAL footy starts NEXT WEEK!
For Premiership points, and the premiership itself!
   ... The only measure of quality football that any true football supporter should be interested in.

Looking at the season as a whole... some fundamental #FootyMaths of season 2012:
   - It is the 116th season of VFL/AFL football.

   - It will see games 13,960 to 14,157 played for another premiership.

   - It will have the most games ever played for a premiership (207 games).

   - It will have the most competing teams (18) thanks to the introduction of team
      number 21*, the GWS Giants.... lets just hope they do try to compete!

   - Game 14,000 is scheduled to be played on 28 Apr at the home of football,
      and is the clash of traditional rivals, in the glamour match of the season **
      ...Melbourne vs. St. Kilda... 
      (Lets see the AFL boffins make a better song-and-dance about that game than
      I did just then!... Go on, have a go!)

So to the First Round predictions...
The 2012 season kicks off with the now traditional pipe-opener***, the glamour derby,
The Sydney Shitstorm: GWS Giants vs Sydney!
The venue formerly known as the year 2000 Olympic Baseball Stadium (and former NRL Dog-track) is guaranteed a sell-out, especially if Tom $cully is playing.

A whole 5 days later, the remainder of the season continues with Richmond's regular season-opening clip-around-the-ears by Carlton, and more games as below.

Blockbuster would be the Hawks v Magpies Prelim Relim... a real cage match where this time, falls will count anywhere inside the stadium!

To the predictions...

I should point out that the FootyMaths calculations have been tweaked to determine any calculated results to be rounded up. Therefore if a win is tipped to be a 0.2 point margin, the computer will not call the game a draw and pronounce Mike Williamson-style "I tipped this!!" by rounding down to a draw.

Instead, I am applying a rounding up of any fractions of scores. If you like, any fractional score above 1 point constitutes a full point.
This is purely for the purposes of the blog posts and tipping winners, and does not affect the FootyMaths calculations or fundaments.

This will mean the FootyMaths blog will never tip the draw, except when the numbers crunched by the FootyMaths boffins turn up as a draw and I mention it in a post.
 ... Yep! An each-way bet!  You cant get more Aussie than that, ...other than being some smart-arsed-after-the-event-Monday's-expert-wanker. Those types are not tolerated in these parts!

An additional point relating to the mechanics of this seasons #FootyMaths calculations (and I am happy to be challenged on this) is that I have set the GWS Giants to a 500pt ranking, instead of the traditional 1000pts as per the FootyMaths godfathers guide to ranking maths.

Why 500? well looking at how the Suns came in and in one year dropped from 1000 to 584, I think its fairer and more accurate on the tipping to be starting at 500.
... Tell me I am wrong!
... Or that I should retrospectively start the Suns at 500. Either way!

Finally... I am hoping to keep up this blogging and tipping all year, so hang on for a rough ride and feel free to hang some crap on me too when the tips don't come in.

After all... its what Footy is all about!
Note: some data has been altered to reflect the corrections to the database, as mentioned in the 'Erratum' post.

* Team 21 will be the GWS Giants, if you consider teams as separate entities. I have considered Fitzroy, Brisbane Bears and Brisbane Lions as all separate entities, as they were partners in a merger (forced or otherwise). Not consisdered are South Melbourne and Sydney, Footscray and the Western Bulldogs, or North Melbourne and Kangaroos, which was just 're-branding' or re-location.

** as per my list of total games ever played... over to you AFL to confirm.

*** Modern day AFL 'traditions' are no longer forged over generations, but simply 'acquired' via the commandeering of particular days or events, then promoted-the-hell-out-of until the average AFL dolt-follower forgets that other teams played equally as exciting games in front of equally great crowds. Its tradition via marketing, and its a sham.

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