Friday, 30 March 2012

Notes On The Margins

A quick post this afternoon, as a tweet fell across the desk of the boffins at the FootyMaths Institute...
"Any AFL stats buffs happen to know the total average winning margin across all seasons? #justcurious #perspective Ping @AFL"

The powers of the FootyMaths supercomputers were once again in service to determine the result...
Across all games from 1897 to 2011 (i.e. all VFL/AFL premiership games, including finals):
Average:  31.9 pts
Median:   26   pt



Click to enlarge
Further investigation brings up the chart below... a population graph of all margins, and we have highlighted the average (or arithmetic mean) and median results.

From the AFL era games from 1990 to 2011 (all premiership games, including finals): 
Average:  36.1 pts
Median:   31   pts

2 comments:

  1. Very interesting. Seems in recent times the margins are increasing, or is that just because of higher scoring matches?? Also could you tell me where you found the raw data for this, would love to investigate further?

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    Replies
    1. Matches are higher scoring in recent years, but compared to 1930's it is only by about 10-15pts per game. The number of blowouts has increased dramatically since then. Games seem to have been a lot closer in the past, even at high scoring rates.
      Check this post and graphs:
      http://footymaths.blogspot.com.au/2013/01/the-new-football-arms-war.html

      Note the blue line is average score per game.
      Blowouts considered as +60pts winning margins (minimum, with colours on the bars indicating +20pt increments)

      Data taken from another site, with much work done (MUCH!) to produce the outcomes here and in the other post.
      There are folks selling the data and software to search it... google should help find them.

      PS... thanks for dropping by!

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