Friday, 18 May 2012

Round 8: A Big Week?

The AFL, driven by His Andrew-ness, decided many a moon ago that the early rounds of the season be locked away for special events. Yet there is one key special event that is waited-on with baited breath by the footballing public.
So finally, here it is... the most anticipated game of the season!
        Port Adelaide v North Melbourne

.....Errmmm, no.
The real game of the year to date is here in Round 8... the game that should have been played in Round 1...
or even on Anzac Day...

Yes, the Grand Final Re-match -     Collingwood -v- Geelong.

Both teams have had an up and down season so far, possibly more down than up though. Using the FootyMaths ranking points system, they are still the top two teams in the competition, but are playing below their potential this season, by about 13%.

And for you blog readers playing along at home... a bonus 5 points to any of you who can let us know why we wait until round 8 for the Grand Final rematch.
[Answers in an envelope addressed to Vlad, AA and Young Gil, c/o AFL HQ in your capital city, please.]

Round 8 also gives us another special event, the very noble exercise of the 'Dreamtime at the G', where both great improvers (as we had shown just this week) for 2012 will finally go head to head.

So to the Round 8 predictions...
The close one of the round tipped by the FootyMaths Supercomputer is...
A 2 point margin to the reigning premiers in the Grand Final rematch
And while we tip the premiers by 2pts, the @AFLStatsGuys remind us (see tweet at right).
So if since 2006, we have premiers winning in '07 and '08 (i.e. back-to-back), then not winning until '11... then following the back-to-back pattern, our tip is correct!
(and that logic would stretch FootyMaths principles to such a distant realm that our Supercomputer would have to check itself into rehab!). 

The Dreamtime game and the other clash of the top 8 teams, West Coast v St.Kilda are also tipped as close, with expected margins of 6pts and 7pts respectively.

Interesting also that the calculations spit out a 47pt win for the Lions v GWS, but let's take that with a grain of salt too.

To the tips...

There are 3 big losses calculated for this week, but they may not end up in the Blow-Out Bin...
 - Hawthorn to defeat Fremantle by 43pts,
 - The Bulldogs to defeat the Gold Coast by 41pts, and
 - Brisbane to defeat the GWS by 47pts.

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