Friday, 29 June 2012

SIREN! ...Season Half Time Review!

With all the byes out of the way, and more than half the AFL season gone, its time for the Half Time review.
So lets review how your team is performing this season according to our ranking data.

Each week we publish our teams rankings that are accumulated across seasons. We also list the teams net gain or loss of ranking points for the season on the Hall of Fame and Shame page.

As per the Quarter Time Review we posted after round 6, we will again be using a different metric to the rankings points. As above, the ranking points are across seasons and therefore not solely of this year.
To understand who is playing better this year only, we will be using the a metric that measures how a team played against each opponent on a week to week basis. In this way, we can see if a team performed above or below their ranking level on a game by game basis.
These numbers the get aggregated and averaged to create tables and charts that highlight how your team is performing this year.
Remember of course that these numbers are also linked to the quality of the opposition played to date!

The Second Quarter.
Looking at rounds 7 to 13 (6 games each team) we can generate the table as below.

Collingwood take over as the team with the best from from rounds 7 to 13, with Hawthorn second and both teams in the +1300pt bracket.
Next comes Geelong, Sydney, St Kilda and West Coast in the 1200-1100pt bracket (quite a gap behind), then Essendon, Richmond and Carlton in the 1100-1000pt bracket.

At the foot of the table are Melbourne in the 800-700pt bracket (but improved from Q1), Gold Coast in the  500-600pt bracket (slightly worse than Q1) and the GWS Giants in the -500pt bracket (and a slight improvement)

So one again, as we did in the Quarter Time Review, we chart changes vs the teams ranking after round 13, as per here. The left chart is the raw points difference between how teams have played subtracted from their ranking points, and the right chart expresses that number as a

And from this we can see that the city of Adelaide have had a sensational second group of 6 games this year, with Adelaide playing 14% better than their ranking suggests, and Port Adelaide also playing 13% better than their ranking.
They are joined by Brisbane, who are playing 11% better than their ranking.
Richmond continues a great season with 6 games of 9% better football than their ranking.

Teams having a bad 6 rounds were Carlton (13% down), Gold Coast (11% down), North Melbourne (9% down) and Geelong and the Western Bulldogs (both 8% down)

GWS seem to have stabilzed and performed as well as their ranking suggests. It will be interesting to see if that changes as the long, hard season progresses.

The First Half
Combining the above 6 games (rounds 7-13) with the earlier  Quarter Time Review based on rounds 1-6, we can see the table below and the best teams of the first half of the season.
Topping off the list is Hawthorn at 1302pts, followed by Collingwood at 1253pts, then Geelong on 1206pts.
Rounding out the top eight best performed are West Coast (1193), St Kilda (1158), Sydney (1152), Carlton (1131) and Adelaide (1077).

Interestingly, our placing of Hawthorn as the best team of the first half of 2012 is not alone, as
 - Troy Wheatley's recent blog post "Are The Hawks Doing Better Than The Pies?" also crowns the Hawks as the premier team to date, and
 - The BigFooty board also ranks the Hawks as the best to date via another Power Ranking system (despite the opinions of others posting there... which is a good reason why we don't post our results there!).

At the foot of the table, Brisbane Lions (887), Port Adelaide (826), Melbourne (727), Gold Coast (541) and the GWS (431)

Performing above expectations are Port Adelaide (9%) and Richmond, Essendon and Adelaide (all 7%)

Under performing are Collingwood and the GWS (both -5%), Melbourne and Gold Coast (both -6%) and Geelong and the Western Bulldogs (both -7%)


  1. I have the two Adelaide teams as the big improvers this year, with Adelaide going from well below average to above average, and Port going to well below average from Gold Coast.

    1. We have some degree of agreement then, best team this year is Hawks, big improvement from Port Adelaide and Adelaide.

      This makes us happy that our system is working.

      Must review these with the attenuated data (that has the Hawks as top ranked team, not Collingwood) to see the effects.