Friday, 20 July 2012

Round 17: Make or Break

The week that gives us a flavour of 2012 finals football with all the current top 8 teams playing against each other.
Will this sort the wheat from the chaff?
Who will make good of these games and cement their spot, and whose season will be decided this week?

And from the teams outside the eight, who will take their chance this week, hoping someone outside the 8 gets tipped out?
From v Giants and Carlton v the Dogs should see them steer closer to the finals, but for Richmond and North Melbourne its a big '8 point game'.

So to the Round 17 predictions...
Another tipping challenge accepted this week with (at least)...
 - David Pope continuing the challenge and hoping to destroy what he sees as the rise of the footy tipping machines.
 - John Carr returning to trounce the computer again, and
 - a new candidate: Its Mark Duffett (@MarkDuffett), self described "expat Croweater" now in Tassie, and he is also "For science & rational quantitative thinking". Another who has applied maths to create a tipping model. His tack is somewhat different to ours, as we employ irrational quantitative un-thinking!.

The much lauded (by the media at least) big week of football is here, with all the top 8 teams squaring up with each other.
But for this weeks 'close one' it is NOT any of those teams, but the 15 v 16 clash, as titled by Mr. FootyMaths...
     It is Melbourne to win the CrocBuster vs Port Adelaide in Darwin by 1 point!#
The actual margin tipped was 0.28 points, which makes it the second closest tip of the year to date.

As to the top 8 team matches, the tips are...
Geelong by 26, West Coast by 2, Hawthorn by 2, and Sydney by 10.

Throw in the North Melbourne Richmond game (tipped as North by 6) and its a week of close ones with 5 games under 2 goals, one more under 4 goals, and 2 more under 5 goals.

This leaves just Fremantle -v- GWS as a one sided affair.

To the tips...

The only clear Blow-Out Bin candidate is as mentioned, Fremantle over the GWS.

MEZZOCULO INDEX - The last 5, and the next 3:
As we introduced recently, the last 5 game heat chart is here again, but this time we have added a guide to the next three games as well.
Here is how the Mezzoculo Index works (as named after the blog commenter who requested it):
A teams position in the red-yellow-green coloured sections indicates how they have gone in the last 5 weeks... if a team is in the red, its been on fire. If a team is in the green, they are in the wilderness and struggling for form.
The size of the team marker indicates how we think they will run for the next 3 games... the bigger the marker, the more likely to win.

1 comment:

  1. That's a good looking index, easy on the mind and the eye!