Friday, 31 August 2012

Five Adrift

The finalists are now set, with one last round to play to set them in order, and determine finals games and home finals etc.

However, at the other end of the table, the Gold Coast were the only team in Round 22 to win from the bottom 6 clubs.
Collectively, the bottom five teams are a big problem for the AFL.
As a group, the teams placed 14th to 18th;
>  are a minimum 4 wins away from 13th placed Brisbane,
>  have a combined win total of 19 wins (which is less than Collingwood won in 2011)
>  have the five lowest 'For' scores in the competition, with the best of those (Port Adelaide on 1585) being 191 points below Brisbane's 1776 points scored.
>  have conceded 2000 points or more for the season. Outside of this group, only Brisbane and North Melbourne have conceded more than 2000 points.
>  have, in any single game, scored 100 points on only 7 occasions:
Melbourne:      135 (v GWS Giants 57) & 108 (v Suns 66)
West. Bulldogs: 104 (v GWS Giants 62) & 101 (v North Melb. 83)
Gold Coast:     109 (v GWS Giants 79)
GWS Giants:     107 (v Port Adelaide 73)
Port Adelaide:  118 (v Gold Coast 70)
>  contribute 35 of the 49 'blow-out' games this season (defeats by 60points or more), and only 1 victory by 60 points or more.
>  have not defeated any of this seasons finalists, with the following exceptions
North Melb.     12.11. 83 def by West Bulldogs 15.11.101
Port Adelaide   14.11. 95 def    North Melb. 14.9. 93

The AFL talks up a balanced, even competitions where all teams have a chance of winning in a season, but htis season, even if you exclude the two new development teams, has some indicators of a competition in crisis, split between big clubs and the rest.
The five adrift might need addressing by HQ, and now is the best time to start.

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