Friday, 17 August 2012

Round 21: Last Chance Saloon

Mathematically, there are still 12 teams that can make the 8... that's right even Richmond, with the cards falling right for the rest of the season can pinch 8th spot (and that's the research of someone who has dedicated more time than we have, Sean Ross...who's blog you really should read regularly).

But the cold hard reality is that there will probably only be one change to the top 8, and most likely Fremantle will slide in.
And this round will help sort out the 8:
- Geelong have to win to stay on track, but the Saints also need the 4 points as well to keep their finals hopes alive.
- Fremantle could end Richmond's thin hopes, as well as bolster their own.
- Carlton might shutdown their season if they lose to Essendon... if they win, they go close to shutting down Essendon's finals chances too.
- North Melbourne need to keep on winning, but Collingwood might shake them this week.
- If West Coast miss the win against Port Adelaide, well they have big worries.
So, let the insanity begin!

Here are the Round 21 predictions...
Another difficult week is tossed up for Round 21.
Three games tipped for under 2 goal margins, and another 2 for under a 4 goal margin.

For the first time, we also have two close games tipped this week...
The dueling close matches this week are;
Geelong  -v- St Kilda     tipping for Geelong by 11 points, and
Brisbane -v- Adelaide     tipping for Adelaide by 11 points.
Close by is Fremantle to defeat Richmond by 2 straight goals in the West, and Carlton to defeat Essendon by 14 points. 

To the tips...

Just the one game tipped for the Blow-Out Bin this week, and YET AGAIN it's not the GWS game. Thats 3 weeks in a row! 
This week it is the Gold Coast that we expect to be pounded by the Hawks. Worth noting that Hawthorn also have the highest percentage this season. We expect that to be added to this weekend.

Another tipping challenge has been issued, and as it looks another tough week, we hope for a good response... Check back on Tuesday for the update!

MEZZOCULO INDEX - The last 5, and the next 3:
Here is the Mezzoculo Index again, showing form vs expectation.

Looking at the four games tipped for margins under 1 goal:
 - Geelong and St Kilda: Both slightly off form, Cats expected to do better... we think our tip looks OK, but could go either way.
 - Brisbane and Adelaide: The Crows are on fire, and really should have this in the bag.
 - Fremantle and Richmond: Both teams similar in recent form and expectation. Home advantage helps Freo for the win.
 - Essendon and Carlton: another two teams under performing, this could go either way, but we will stick to Carlton to get up.

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