Tuesday, 21 August 2012

Tips 9: The Race to Sunday

In this edition:
Its the ninth edition of the the FootyMaths supercomputer tipping challenge, and second last for the season*.

The same 6 challengers as last week padded up to face our super computer;
    - @TheHolyBoot, @SidebySidePies, @davpope, @A_OKeefe, @MarkDuffett
     (using a mathematical model), and @Wal13Freo.

It had to happen... a week where the tipping was so similar that it became a race to the margin to decide a winner.

So this weekend involved 5 tipsters all picking the same, which meant somewhere along the way, the margin would come into play.
The outliers were Mark, who tipped St.Kilda, and Wal who tipped North and Essendon.

So as Friday night closed, Mark was basically out of the running, and the comp was either a battle of the margins for 'The 5', or if Wal's tips came home, he would be the solo winner.

As Saturday progressed, and Essendon got flogged, that put Wal back a spot. It looked bad for Wal, as you most would think by tipping North against Collingwood (!!), but it proved to be an inspired choice as the Roos got up.

Which meant Wal joined 'The 5' as they all raced to the Hawthorn margin on Sunday evening.

As it turned out, the Hawks played funny buggers with had some late changes to the team line-up**, and tanked early struggled against the greatly improved Suns squad, before running out 64pt winners

All the above was fairly accurately forecast by this weeks winner... Andrew!
Very clever by AO'K, thinking through the Hawks strategy, and going nearest the pin.

Worth noting Andrew's other point about Wal...
...which is a fair call... tipping EssenLOL should be a '-1'.

So, the order of the tippers this week:

    GOLD:       Andrew (@A_OKeefe), with 7 correct, (winner on countback on the Hawks margin), and returning to form after two 7th place finished in the last 2 weeks (and he will hate us for that!)
   SILVER:      John (@TheHolyBoot), also 7 correct,
   BRONZE:      @Wal13Freo sneaks in for a podium with 7 correct.

Unplaced (in order) would then be:
4th: @DavPope,
5th: @SidebySidePies, and
6th: @AFLFootyMaths, all with 7 correct, with all the above separated by difference from the margin, then
7th: @MarkDuffett, being 1 match back.

* Thats right - executive decision: Tipping comp. to close at regular home and away seasons end /  before the finals... mainly because, just like Richmond players, we always book our holidays in September.

** Yep, Mitchell pulling out late, and Buddy disappearing again (in a cloud of smoke?) just before the match is no indication of them taking this game lightly... no, not at all.

* Same prize as last week... nothing but the admiration of a small band of tippers 

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