Friday, 12 April 2013

03- Troubled Times

Who was it that said 'bring on the real season so we can put behind the off season drama and scandal'?
Pretty sure that notion should never be trotted out again, as this week has well shown.

With the weeks events still swirling about us, what can the two teams under the most pressure and public glare conjure up?
   - A team that has just had its biggest defeat at home, again runs out in front of its loyal yet thinning fans to take on a premiership contender. Hard to imagine posting a win, but can they at least put in a four-quarter effort?   
   - As far away as possible from teams home, a yet-to-be-cleared-of-wrongdoing team takes on another clear candidate for finals, perhaps even top 4 side on their own turf. How man times can they 'go to the wells' marked "do it for your coach" and "we are better than that"? Can their great start continue, defying the pressure?

After what we thought last week was an easy round to tip, the numbers for this round look even more lopsided. In fact this week gives a higher average winning margin, and a lower deviation, suggesting it is a very lopsided round of football ahead. Further adding weight to that, the differences between home and away rankings points is the largest this season to date, and also for at least the next 2 rounds (round 6 looks to be very lopsided!)

Wow... the closest tip of the week, a 3 goal win to Geelong over Carlton. Three other games fit into the 'win by 4 goal' bracket.

Is it just us that thinks this week looks an easy tipping game? Henry de Cure (and a few others on twitter) think its a tougher week than we do.

The Mezzoculo Index* for past form and predicted future looks a little like this.

Looking this, we can see some justification for Henry's concern...
   - GWS are in better form than St Kilda, and
   - the Suns are listed as our 2nd best recently performed team, and
   - Port Adelaide are under a Hinkley revival while Adelaide are 'doing just enough'.
There are also a raft of teams battling this week with similar form lines.

 * A teams position on the rungs above indicates how they have gone in the last 5 weeks... if a team is higher on the scale, its been on fire. If a team is at the bottom, they have cooled off and lacking form.
The size of the team marker indicates how we think they will run for the next 3 games... the bigger the marker, the more likely to win.

None of the actions around the disintegrating clubs will be helping the AFL brand, which after some great football over the last two weeks, is slowly sinking in the public's eye.

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