Friday, 26 April 2013

If ASADA Bombs Drop...

We have been asked a few times to blog our considered thoughts as to what could happen once the ASADA investigation is complete.

Simply, we have no idea how this will play out. It is heading the AFL Commission into uncharted territory.

Whether or not ASADA declares multiple players and officials at Essendon culpable of sports doping or not, the AFL brand has been tarnished mightily by the whole affair, along with (and perhaps more-so) the NRL.

We can only speculate as to what the AFL will impose on itself, or what ASADA will determine the AFL should do. And it is entirely speculation as to any outcome.

The FootyMaths Institute makes no prediction of what may come, nor advocates the implementation of the below.
We merely propose a discussion point.

We offer the below speculation...

   ...All of Essendon's games are declared null and void (post-ASADA report release)?

The AFL ladder would need to be changed to accommodate such a decision, and purely for the purposes of discussion, it will change to the below.
As after round 4 plus yesterday's St Kilda v SMFC/Sydney game.
Note also the use of Match Ratio to determine positions on the table.

This is obviously a worst case scenario, where all games vs Essendon are voided, premiership points nulled and scores for and against fully deducted.

Clubs affected directly (Adelaide, Melbourne, Fremantle, St Kilda and Collingwood) have all had their data adjusted, and improvements in positions can be seen.
In the case of Melbourne, it is a huge leap to 9th, with match ratio helping propel them up the table.

All the above said... it would be a massive decision for the AFL to undertake.
To strip one of its power clubs, a foundation member, of all its seasons data and rewards.

Never before has such a decision been made in VFL/AFL history.
The precedent is there though, as the NRL undertook a similar judgement in 2010 against the Melbourne Storm after massive salary cap rorting.

1 comment:

  1. Canterbury, 2002.

    After Round 23, 1st on NRL Ladder on 41 points.

    Dogs stripped of 37 points for Salary Cap breaches (all earned points), leaving us bottom with 4 premiership points (earned from 2 byes).

    Dogs then allowed to play out the season after they renegotiated contracts to get under the cap.

    Points scored for / against were not deducted. All results stood.

    Any premiership points earned by Canterbury from Rounds 24-26 were credited as normal.

    Just thought I'd share a weird one :)