Wednesday, 3 April 2013

Revisiting Richmond

Late last season, we looked back at Richmond's 2012 season and thought of what became a season  of 'so close, yet so far away'.
This year, after a close win that perhaps last year might have been a loss, we were reminded (by an interview Chris Newman did) of our post last year on just how many games slipped away. Given what happened then, and the possible improvement this year, this post will propose what could have actually happened in 2012 for the Tigers, and may give some insight as to where they may finish in 2013.

Looking back at that post, we listed 9 losses by under 21 points, as per the table below.

That table only ran to round 18, so the draw in round 23 against Port Adelaide should also be added. This makes a season of 10 missed opportunities to win.

Now, if the Tigers could have taken some of those opportunities, as they did on Thursday night, what would have 2012 looked like?

To model this, we took a basic step of thinking and pre-supposed:
 - that Richmond could have held better in defence, and conceded one less goal, and
 - given a better defensive effort, the Tigers could have gone forward for one more goal.

So an overall 2 goal benefit to Richmond was added to those 10 games above, and the seasons ladder re-drawn, as below (click to expand).
This model gives Richmond another 5 wins, converts the draw against Port Adelaide into a win, and converts the 12 point loss to Fremantle into a draw.
Overall, it lifts the Tigers up into 3rd.

Modified 2012 Standings [left], and Official 2012 Standings [right]

Of course, this is all hypothetical, as well as arbitrary in the application of attributing more/less goals on Richmond and their opposition.
But given that Richmond only won one close game last year, and the mental toughness to hold on was noted by club leaders, you have to wonder where the Tigers will finish in 2013 if they stand shoulder-to-shoulder when matches are in  the balance.

An interesting thought for the season, and one of the bigger clubs in Melbourne.

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