Friday, 17 May 2013

08- Back To Jacks

Post 201... the first post of the rest of this blogs life.

This week, the numbers around the rankings disparity between teams, combined with average margin, make this round the second most uneven of the year. This after last week, which was the most even, and the week before, the most un-even. The quirks of the AFL draw are sending us on a quality roller coaster.

Before we got to write this post (and note the above imbalance), the mysterious 'Monty Carlo' from another tipping blog "WayBeyondRedemption" emailed us (YES... actual email) asking "(I) Wonder who you are going to pick in "Burger Feast Round"?"

It took us a while to work out what that meant, but yep, sure enough, it looks on paper to be another easy to tip round. If you don't get a burger this week, you never will.

...until the next easy round.

And, just imagine if the success-starved Tiger fans don't see Richmond get the win versus Melbourne this weekend.
... oh wait, you don't have to imagine... here's a tweet that helps visualise it neatly.

Unprecedented for us as we break all records in margin tipping, and toss Hawthorn a 122 point expected win this weekend. A massive number, never before posted.

Monte Carlo also backed up his thoughts on just how easy this week is by providing his tips, the Swinburne Uni tips, the Bookies selections, the Footy Forecaster tips, and the MAFL tips.
To no one's surprise here on the FootyMaths Institute campus grounds... they are all the same, and the same as ours.
It looks a very bad week ahead for Hungry Jacks.

Close games this week can only muster 9 point margins... not the worst round for close games, but not the best either.

Looking at the chart, of the teams looking to break in to the best half dozen or so, Carlton seem to have hit good form recently, and the size of their spot shows we expect them to win more in the coming weeks.
The Saints too have a bigger spot so should win a game or two, but their form is way down... no guarantees for the Seaford-siders.
Camp Cuddles*, pardon... Essendon have dropped in the form index and also expected wins rating as well. And with games against Brisbane, Richmond, Sydney and Carlton coming, you cant say they will get much more than 50% of those, with any confidence.

* Thanks to Liam Mulcahy [(at)MulcahyLiam] for that wonderful description of the new 'lets involve the parents after jabbing their sons' era Bombers.

Gotta get back...

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