Friday, 11 July 2014

Tale Of This Season - R.16 Edition

Time to run the data on another set of predictions.

Once again, all the seasons results are fed into our tables and spreadsheets to determine who would finish where at seasons end, by applying our ranking numbers to the remainder of draw, and making predictive attempts at results.

After running the simulations of the season, we look at two forms of results. The charts below are produced from the accumulated ladders after each simulated seasons, and also the number of wins per team per season.

Ladder Positions
Accumulated ladder positions, we can suggest the following end of season possibilities.

With a great run home, we now position Sydney as the most likely to finish minor Premiers... The Swans play only two of the top 8 (Port and Hawthorn) in the next 7 games.

They are clear ladder leaders after Port Adelaide and Hawthorn have dropped games. Those two teams and Fremantle also have tougher runs home in the next 7 games
  - Hawthorn 4 of the top 8 teams,
  - Port play 3 of the top 8, and
  - Fremantle play 3 of the top 8.

The remaining 5 places in the 8, are spread between the Gold Coast, Collingwood, Geelong and North Melbourne.
The Suns have benefited from Collingwood's two losses in the last three rounds, and now move to possible 7th placed finishers... but it will be interesting to see them play without Gary Jnr.

In chart form, this is how we see of teams finishing at seasons end.

Which means we see Adelaide finishing in 9th, with Essendon in 10th (Crows and Dons still to play three and 2 top 8 teams, respectively).

Adelaide and Essendon are the two sides most likely (with a 26%  and 3% chance respectively) to enter the top 8.
The current top 8 candidates to make way are Port (1% chance), North (3%), Gold Coast (4%) and Collingwood (22%).

Adelaide (under our scenarios) are a solid lock at 9th (59% chance as per below). Tailing those two teams are the Eagles, and Tigers. Then a block of three teams in contention for 13th to 15th... The Bulldogs, Carlton and Melbourne.

Looking at % chances of finishing in positions, the table below was formed.

Sydney are 84% likely to be 1 or 2.
At the other end, Saints will finish last, headed by Brisbane and the GWS... finally not spooners.

PS... yes there are rounding errors in the above.

Its All About Wins
Using a calculation around the predicted number of wins per team, we get a slightly different 2014 ladder prediction.

[In the table below, the ◊ mark indicates the number of wins currently for each team (excluding Essendon, West Coast, Carlton, St Kilda, Brisbane and the GWS, who have bolded text).]

Under this methodology, we have Sydney again as  Minor Permiers, with Hawthorn and Fremantle behind them.
There is a noticable step down then to Geelong and Port Adelaide, and then following to round out the top 8 in order are North Melbourne, Gold Coast and Collingwood, trailing off in 8th.

Again, our numbers by this method put Adelaide and Essendon in 9th and 10th respectively.

The percentage chances of wins in 2014 are displayed below, and it is bad news at the foot of the table.

We cant, using our rankings data applied to the reaminder of the season, see St Kilda winning another game. Their next 7 are vs North, Fremantle, Suns, Bulldogs, Sydney, Richmond and Adelaide. Can you see a win there? Maybe Richmond?
This would see St Kilda round out their season with 17 straight losses if true. Hopefully they pick up at least one somewhere in that next 7.

Others likely to not win again are Brisbane and GWS, Carlton (21% chance), and West coats and Essendon (1% and 4% respectively).

Again, backing up Adelaide's claim to 9th, we see them as the strongest candidate to score any result between 8 - 13 wins, with a 40% chance at 12 wins. This and the 59% chance of finishing 9th locks them there for our money.

Finally, running a distribution chart on the above wins (totals not percentages - not that it matters), we can generate this chart below.

This again shows the splitting of the comp into sectors of teams that will win around the window of 15 to 17 games, with another set in the 6 to 10 game bracket and a smaller set with only 3 or 4 wins... based on our estimations.

To be reviewed (maybe) 1 more time before seasons end.

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