And with a few weeks to play out of the 2016 season, now is as good a time as any to just check back and see if there were any improvements.
The three key measures targeted were for improvements in
- match results tipping accuracy,
- tipped margin error reduction, and
- improved Monash competition score.
In all three measures, the new system has delivered improvement.
|THREE MEASURES COMPARISON|
|MAE (Margin Error)||30.6||30.4||-0.2||-0.7%|
A small improvement, but forward progression none the less.
Yes the red negatives for MAE indicate a better performance as you want to be as close to zero as possible with this measure.
Also added in is the Monash Position data, which is not critical, and hence shaded grey.
Reducing MAE is also linked to improving the Monash score, as the Monash score is built around margin accuracy, with points awarded to margin differentials separated into brackets.
Comparing those brackets under the two systems yields some improvements as well.
|MARGIN BRACKET COUNTS|
With a prima facie look at that table, you could make a case for the two more 'exact' tipped games as having come from the immediate 2 brackets above the zero point, as well as the 2 more results in the 19-24 point bracket as having come from the 25-30 and 31+ point brackets.
It will need further investigation to determine exactly if that's the case. Or maybe its just best left alone.
Finally, the changes made to the algorithm also impacts a teams rating, and with the multi-step taper employed under the new system, the changes had different impacts at different stages of the year.
But as the table below shows, over the space of the year (to date), these were minimal once accumulated.
|CURRENT (NEW) SYSTEM||OLD SYSTEM|
|RANKINGS||vs Old System||RANKINGS|
|5||W Bulldogs/FFC||1325||0||-||5||W Bulldogs/FFC||1325|
|7||West Coast||1208||3||-||7||West Coast||1205|
|8||Port Adelaide||1182||-4||-||8||Port Adelaide||1186|
|9||North Melbourne||1175||1||-||9||North Melbourne||1174|
|12||St Kilda||1017||3||-||12||St Kilda||1015|
|16||Gold Coast||856||3||-||16||Gold Coast||854|
|18||Brisbane Lions||629||-1||-||18||Brisbane Lions||630|
The differences above are really quite minor, but yet yielded a 1% improvement.
Clearly a new and perhaps more radically modified algorithm will need to be developed.