1. SUMMER OF FOOTBALLING LOVE

The AFL Women's season over the last few weeks of summer has changed football. There are new teams, players, and fans. The venues are different and create a different vibe. Having attended a game and talked through games with others, the live experience totally different.

What is most significant though about the AFLW is the outpouring of love for what has happened. Commentary through the major media outlets as well as on blogs and podcasts has been effusive, and full of love and admiration for what is happening, and the ongoing developments. The seeds have been sewn, roots have taken hold, and saplings are forming.

We have, in the space of a few months during the 'summer of footballing love', witnessed and lived through a defining moment in Australian Football.


For the Men's competition, the wheels of change grind on. The new season brings new players, coaches, tactics and fans, as well as those that have yet to leave.
And there is also something new this season, the Premiers.
What a ride they took us on last year, and it is no better presented than in the season launch film in this link.

Into The Fury: The tale of the 2016 flag - westernbulldogs.com.au

Worth your time to watch.


So while the AFLW rounds out the summer of football love, you could make a case for that summer of love to have started in September as the Western Bulldogs began their finals tilt by dominating at Subiaco, against the expectations of every one.

They then rode a long long wave though September, building hope and love for footy and 'the story' of the Bulldogs. That wave engulfed the reigning Premiers, and was just enough to get over the Giants at their den, in what would be perhaps the best football game of the season.
By the first day of October, the tsunami-like wave of emotion, and commitment of the players, was stronger than the staunch and valiant Sydney.

It was an amazing ride. It was exciting, and fantastical. And it was followed by the evolution of football with the start of the AFL Women's League.


An extraordinary six months in the footballing landscape of our great game.

Expected Round 1 Results

So with all those developments over the summer behind us, autumn again beckons the Men's competition onto the fields of play.
It also brings the FMI tips and blog back to action for its 6th big season. Pioneers is a word not to be used, but there has been plenty of others joining in recently, and thats a good thing for footy and blogging - it drives innovation.

And the FMI system has again undergone a slight review and rework (all part of the competitve innovation process), so to start the season the following rankings are current.

RANKINGS
TEAM		PTS
1	Sydney/SMFC	1385
2	Adelaide	1370
3	GWS	1352
4	W Bulldogs/FFC	1283
5	Geelong	1275
6	Hawthorn	1273
7	West Coast	1264
8	North Melbourne	1153
9	Port Adelaide	1147
10	Collingwood	1071
11	St Kilda	1001
12	Melbourne	996
13	Richmond	945
14	Fremantle	882
15	Carlton	875
16	Gold Coast	856
17	Essendon	708
18	Brisbane Lions	613

Following on from that another slight off-season modification to the system, the first round tips are as per below.

	HOME				AWAY	VENUE	PREDICTED RESULT
R 1	Carlton	2	v	-11	Richmond	MCG	Richmond	by	8	pts	45
	Collingwood	17	v	20	W Bulldogs/FFC	MCG	W Bulldogs/FFC	by	21	pts	35
	St Kilda	20	v	16	Melbourne	Dock	St Kilda	by	1	pts	51
	Sydney/SMFC	25	v	-6	Port Adelaide	SCG	Sydney/SMFC	by	38	pts	78
	Gold Coast	10	v	-28	Brisbane Lions	Carr	Gold Coast	by	39	pts	78
	Essendon	-5	v	-10	Hawthorn	MCG	Hawthorn	by	60	pts	12
	North Melbourne	-20	v	16	West Coast	Dock	West Coast	by	2	pts	50
	Adelaide	7	v	32	GWS	Adel	Adelaide	by	15	pts	62
	Fremantle	-56	v	16	Geelong	Subi	Geelong	by	29	pts	29

Effective flip of the coin for the St Kilda / Melbourne game. Why this isn't in prime time I do not know. Instead we have Essendon vs Hawthorn instead... the comeback game.

The comeback of a player from a life-threatening cancer is an important moment. And it over-rides any notion of 'celebrating' the return of players found to have breached anti-doping rules.
By all means, these players should be able to return to play, but marking the event as significant is a step too far.

Also as a bonus surprise is the coin-flip North Melbourne / West Coast game.
Two points!.
This will be an interesting tip.

The form indicator highlighting GWS's better form over the Crows may be a harbinger for Adelaide, and the rest of the teams if the GWS get flying (as the media pundits think they will).
Otherwise, form is basically as per tip.

Other Notes:

• The first few rounds are always the toughest to accurately tip as model tipping formats are based on past data, and changes year-on-year can be more rapid than models expect. An acceleration factor has been added to the model to try to counter that effect.
• Hey guess what? That new recruit you think is really good... yeah well this model (and other ELO models) don't see things like that. Principle is every team has a 36 player list. One player falls, another rises to take their place. And really, everyone thought Adelaide would suffer without 'Danger' and the finished as defeated semi finalists. 
• Coach changes, rule changes... yep same. The model is not interested. Its all about the raw data.

So take that information in hand as you tip, and remember ...

     No Wagering!