Now in its 6th big season, its your FMI's trusted and ever present assessment of the season ahead.
And this year its a double shot of posts.
This post is on the expected number of wins per teams generated via simulations of seasons. And an alternative look at the season finishing ladder position has been blogged, with both generated by the same simulations.
Under the FMI approach, the ratings of each team are used to calculate ranges of possible match results, adjust ratings after each and event, and continue iterations for the whole season, then repeat the process again and again.
The rankings used are as per the end of the 2017 season, and are listed below. The league fixture also has an impact, and the handicapping of it is examined as per this post.
A further note: There has been a small style change to the blog this year as below. Nothing earth-shattering but just a small adjustment to make the blog present better.
SEASON WINSAfter running 10,000 season simulations, the data was collected and aggregated to produce the below spread of expectations, expressed as a percentage.
With such a diverse array of outcomes, the order in the left most column is speculative to say the least. What is visible is the clusters of teams with similar expectations.
For example, there is a block of teams from Sydney down to West Coast all in the 14 to 19 win window. Compare this to the Hawthorn to North Melbourne block that is centered on a spread of 11 to 15 win window.
At the foot of the table, the groupings become tighter as the rankings points become more distant from their neighbour. Even with that in play, there is still a grouping of teams around the 4 to 8 win field.
Taking a more broader view of the win windows, the below table is slightly easier on the eye and makes the mess of data above more discernible.
Once again in 2017, the two Sydney teams look to be playing in the same space. Will be interesting times come finals, and lets look forward to another derby final.
Another lean year for the Lions is on the cards, while for the Gold Coast it is hard to see where improvement will come from. A good crop of kids are developing, but so are those in others teams.
West Coast look set to outshine Fremantle again. The uneven-ness in the Eagles chart is interesting and hints at a struggle to maintain a finals spot this year.
Both the Saints and Blues did exceptionally well last year, with one stopping the rot, while the other nudged the finals. For St Kilda, doing that well pushed them into a tougher fixture bracket, so maintaining the status quo will be a KPI. Carlton needs to focus on a rebuild.
The well defined peak in the Collingwood chart is interesting. The companion blog post has them finishing 9th overall, but the peak on 14 wins suggests a very close race for 7th and 8th this year. North's curve is flatter, reflecting the assumption that they are destined to fall from the finals race.
As before, the sister post to this one on 'expected ladder position' might be worth your time too.
Good luck to all teams and tipsters in 2017.