But before that, Rounds 1 through to 5 encompass effectively the first quarter of the season. With the late finish of round 5 due to Anzac Day commitments, the analysis of performance for the quarter was held over until this post.
Using rankings point changes instead of the more common wins/losses data, improvements can be tracked that may not be otherwise clear.
Below, the chart shows changes to rankings over the first five rounds,
Rather simple to understand is the significant boost to Essendon from their returning players. Three wins and two losses they may be, but the improvement has been the best from all teams - coming off a small base admittedly.
Also, those power teams that have struggled this year are also clearly the biggest losers. The magnitude of their decline is massive though.
Carlton's season so far has gone backwards, which is not what you want when developing a new set of players and selling hope to your supporters.
On the fringes of the bigger shifts are West Coast and North Melbourne down slightly. No surprises for North, but a worry for the Eagles. These two plus the Haws and Swans need to catch a tram.
Also worrying for the whole competition is the small upward shifts for Adelaide, Geelong and GWS. If these three better teams get better and better... well then. Its a problem for the chasing pack.
All the other teams are basically just going along as expected.
Six from nine is the mantra for season 2017. There will always be an outsider or three bobbing up to nick a win here and there.
|PREDICTED RESULT||ACTUAL RESULT||RATINGS ADJUSTMENTS|
|Hawthorn||by||27||pts||70||St Kilda||by||75||☒||Hawthorn||-41||St Kilda||+28|
|Port Adelaide||by||51||pts||15||Port Adelaide||by||83||☑||Brisbane Lions||-13||Port Adelaide||+23|
|North Melbourne||by||39||pts||78||North Melbourne||by||13||☑||North Melbourne||-17||Gold Coast||+11|
|West Coast||by||40||pts||79||West Coast||by||41||☑||West Coast||0||Fremantle||-1|
Where did Carlton and Collingwood come from?
Well OK in one instance it was a win over the smouldering Swans wreckage
Sadly Brisbane are now adrift at the foot of the table, almost 200 points clear
But quite an awesome start by Port Adelaide. Now 5th ranked. They were in the FMI top 8 in the season predictions blog, while other commentators did not have them as well regarded.
The Week Ahead:Sydney are due, yeah? And they couldn't ask for a better opponent.
That said, Brisbane are not an easy win by any stretch.
|Port Adelaide||29||v||-13||West Coast||Adel||Port Adelaide||by||13||pts||59|
|W Bulldogs/FFC||-18||v||24||Richmond||Dock||W Bulldogs/FFC||by||24||pts||68|
So be careful using these - Brisbane over Sydney and Melbourne over Hawthorn are real possibilities.
Such is tipping via the not-nearly-flexible-enough model tipping systems.