The Friday night 'Greater Western' looks the game of the round. Dogs must win to stay alive.The Bulldogs didn't win, but do still have a flicker let in their flame.
No wait, its Geelong - Richmond. Tigers must win to prove credentials.Richmond didn't win, but also didn't disappoint greatly. A 14 point loss a bad result, but it did look likelt to get right wawy from them early, so to pull it back will be a minor positive.
No wait, its Essendon - Adelaide. Dons must win to stay alive for the 8 and prove credentials.Essendon didn't win either, and actually went worse than expected. Have not proven their top 8 credentials yet (currently 3 wins, 6 losses). They do have Gold Coast and Fremantle coming, so could sneak a top 8 spot.
No wait, its Melbourne - St Kilda. An early elimination final for you all.And so that came to pass. St Kilda are basically finished for the year, while Melbourne live on, needing to win again to be sure
So this week, there are other big defining games at hand. But before that, following on from the SWARMS analysis, which attempts to predict the end of season ladder, the below table has been generated from the same data run.
This table is made by the same principles but now applying them to the finals series as well.
And interestingly, it is predicting the one time 0-6 Swans to be favourite for turning up to the Grand Final.
So, in the above there are 10 teams listed, for they are the teams the SWARMS analysis has determined are likely to finish in the top 8.
In week 1 of the finals, 6 teams are listed at 100%, meaning they are most likely to make the 8. There are four others sub 100%.
In the latter weeks of the finals, there are diminished values as teams chances drop off.
And yes - there can be scenarios such as GWS where the chance of making the Prelim week is higher than the Semis.
The Wash-UpYet another 7 from nine. And also a Sunday where two results were very close to the tipped margin.
The ranks show little changes through the table, with not much notable.
Brisbane. Forlorn in last. But its not all doom and gloom.
Over the stretch of the season they have improved from about 600 to over 750.
Recovery is at hand.
The Week AheadWell now. We have another interesting set of games.
Adelaide and Sydney will be fun. If the Swans win, then the top 4 is opening up. A loss would be interesting for Sydney too.
The Bulldogs may rue playing in Ballarat if they lose to Port and the door is shut on September.
Geelong are tipped to beat Collngwood - as they were earlier this year, and last year and twice the year before . In those 4 games, Collingwood won three. Not an easy game for the Cats.
GWS should win at home. Because GWS are better. And West Coast don't travel. This should be 'shut the gate' on the Eagles.
Melbourne should be able to get past the Lions, particularly at home. Don't discount Brisbane though. They are showing no signs of putting the cue in the rack yet.
The last game that matters for the top eight is Fremantle's last game at Subi. Another mountain to climb for Richmond.
Good tipping, all.