Friday, 1 September 2017

24. PRONOUNCEMENTS

Home and away footy is home and hosed... or something.
The final 8 is set and further in the post there is some rather outrageous expectation data for those teams and the finals. Read on, McDuff.


For the non-finalists and all teams after the 23 rounds, the full ranking table is also below in 'The Wash-Up' as normal. But because we have finished the last quarter of the season it is time to review each team and how they went over those 6 weeks.

The chart below shows the ratings changes over that period and highlights all the talk about how Sydney are primed for a flag tilt, with a +100 point increase. They remain the second best team by the FMI system, but only just. Only 2 points separate them from Adelaide.

The team that topped them for improvement over that period is Richmond, who have not had a bad quarter of the season all year. This sort of improvement is positive heading into a finals tilt.

Brisbane and Collingwood drive home in 3rd and 4th best late improvers. No signs of tanking in the Queensland capital, and 'playing for Bucks' means something different at the black and white.



Gold Coast suffered the worst for late season fade-outs and now sit dead last in the FMI rankings. Unsurprisingly North Melbourne and Fremantle also sit at the foot of that table.
Worryingly for a finals campaign-bound team - so too does Port Adelaide.


The Wash-Up

Well whaddya know. Another seven from nine.

This is getting tedious.
HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTIONRESULTRANKING PT CHANGES
Brisbane LionsvNorth MelbourneGabbNortby2pts49Nortby51ptsBris-18Nort17
CollingwoodvMelbourneMCGCollby1pts50Collby16ptsColl11Melb-10
EssendonvFremantleDockEsseby36pts76Esseby15ptsEsse-6Frem6
GeelongvGWSKardGeelby11pts59Geelby29ptsGeel6GWS-7
HawthornvW Bulldogs/FFCDockW Buby2pts49Hawtby9ptsHawt4W Bu-13
Port AdelaidevGold CoastAdelPortby56pts87Portby115ptsPort19Gold-36
RichmondvSt KildaMCGRichby9pts57Richby41ptsRich32St K-11
Sydney/SMFCvCarltonSCGSydnby57pts87Sydnby81ptsSydn26Carl-9
West CoastvAdelaideSubiAdelby12pts41Westby29ptsWest15Adel-15


As above, Adelaide retain top spot, only just holding Sydney out by 2 points.
Port's crushing of the Suns arrests their decline for at least a week, and they jump to 3rd, but really lead a bunch in the 1220's to 1150's range.

Collingwood signed Buckley again and to be fair, it had to happen after this news came in from FMI HQ...


Well done Ed, thanks for reading the blog.

AFTER ROUND23ptstable
1Adelaide1364-150
2Sydney/SMFC1362260
3Port Adelaide1229192
4GWS1226-7-1
5Geelong12226-1
6Richmond1186320
7West Coast1160150
8Collingwood1094112
9W Bulldogs/FFC1089-13-1
10Hawthorn10894-1
11Melbourne1071-100
12Essendon1065-60
13St Kilda1054-110
14North Melbourne937170
15Carlton905-90
16Fremantle85660
17Brisbane Lions766-181
18Gold Coast760-36-1


And yes, Brisbane are off the bottom. Just but yes, not last. Its a start.
The first time off bottom since drug-suspended Essendon last year.
And before that the Lions were last up to the point GWS took off in 2015.

The Week Ahead

Four games for week 1 of the Finals. Only one close one tipped.
HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTION
AdelaidevGWSAdelAdelby27pts71
GeelongvRichmondMCGGeelby4pts53
Port AdelaidevWest CoastAdelPortby20pts65
Sydney/SMFCvEssendonSCGSydnby44pts81


Also, as done last year, here is the FMI system look into possibilities on how far your team will go into September.

Everyone is playing this week, so all 8 teams are 100% chance to play.
From there, the numbers get interesting. So here is how to read it.
In the top half Geelong are 33% to play the Semi, meaning they are more likely to win and progress to the Preliminary finals, than Richmond.

In the bottom half, Port are more likely to progress than West Coast to the Semi's.

SEPTEMBER RUNS
EF / QFSEMISPRELIMGRAND F
Adelaide100119951
Geelong100337030
Richmond100673612
GWS100896029
Port Adelaide100763420
Sydney/SMFC1001009355
Essendon100<1
West Coast1002463
Units above are % chance of playing each week of finals

Otherwise - Sydney. Adelaide.
Of course. They are the best 2 rated now.

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