Wednesday, 21 March 2018

2018: SEVEN IN A ROW

Once again it is time for the roll out of the season predictions by the FMI system, now into its 7th iteration.
And this time we will get it right, for sure. Just like this.

BASIS:

Using the FMI methods and systems, the ratings of each team are used to calculate ranges of possible match results, adjust ratings after each and event, and continue iterations for the whole season, then repeat the process again and again.

The rankings used are as per the end of the 2017 season, and are listed below.  it is worth noting also that in the lead-up to season 2018, there has been minor tinkering with the calculations and the table below has slightly corrected data versus what was published post 2017's Grand Final.
The league fixture also has an impact, and the handicapping of it is examined as per this post.

And interestingly, the fixture this year, being as assessed as quite balanced (all things considered) has produced an interesting outcome in the season predictions.


LADDER POSITION:

With a run of 10,000 simulations of season 2018, making team adjustments round by round the below aggregate data of ladder finishing positions makes for interesting reading.
Like last years predictions, the model lists Sydney a high finishing return for effort. Pipping them this year is the premiers, Richmond.

Other pundit's preference for minor premier, GWS, are relegated down the list under the FMI system.

Also notable  is the broader spread of possible outcomes under the FMI system compared to previous years. This is a reflection on the evenness of the fixture as cited previously, as well as the reduced spread in the rankings between 1st and 18th.

We should be set for a bumper year, and another opportunity for a smokie to pinch a flag.
% EXPECTED WINS123456789101112131415161718
1Richmond3623161064211
2Sydney/SMFC3026171164221
3Adelaide1921201410743111
4Geelong71014171712964311
5Port Adelaide481316151411753211
6GWS471214151511864211
7Collingwood12371013151411974211
8West Coast1247101314141197421
9Hawthorn11357111214131297321
10Melbourne11357101214141310531
11W Bulldogs/FFC113471011131413106421
12St Kilda1235811131516138421
13Essendon1113569121517149521
14North Melbourne123591420201592
15Carlton1123610162020174
16Fremantle1237121924258
17Brisbane Lions1251016232716
18Gold Coast1481869


The above is 'end of H&A season' only stuff, so don't go saying this is a call that Richmond will go back to back.

Interestingly, and outside the square is Collingwood ending up in 7th with approx a 64% chance of finishing in the top 8. After them, West Coast round out the 8. Missing from last seasons top 8 is Essendon, who now find themselves with a much tougher schedule. From this, its expected they will drift back.

To take a more top-line look at those finishing possibilities, the below spread coverage might be useful.

% EXPECTED WINSTop 2Top 4Top 8Last 8Last 4
1Richmond60859900
2Sydney/SMFC56849900
3Adelaide40749710
4Geelong17499220
5Port Adelaide12418840
6GWS11368740
7Collingwood21264151
8West Coast1752231
9Hawthorn1439332
10Melbourne0227474
11W Bulldogs/FFC0226507
12St Kilda0119576
13Essendon01107517
14North Melbourne0019446
15Carlton0019661
16Fremantle0009976
17Brisbane Lions00010081
18Gold Coast00010098



Footnote to the above: This year the focus is on ladder positions only. In previous years a 'games won' analysis was also run, but won't be done this year.

MORE DATA.

In running ladder predictions for the AFLW this year, a commenter asked about how those numbers sometimes added to 101 or 99 (percent), when clearly they should be 100.
The answer was simple in that the table had rounding errors. This is policy to make a better looking table without ht e clutter.
But given the question was put forward, the table below has all the data.

So knock yourselves out knowing the FMI system has allocated you a 0.1% chance of finishing in [position you are interested in].

% EXPECTED WINS123456789101112131415161718
1Richmond36.223.316.09.86.23.92.21.30.60.40.10.1
2Sydney/SMFC30.126.017.110.96.44.12.41.60.80.40.2
3Adelaide19.121.319.614.010.06.64.12.51.30.80.50.2
4Geelong6.710.414.417.316.712.18.65.83.62.51.10.60.30.2
5Port Adelaide3.58.312.916.315.113.710.77.14.73.42.21.30.60.20.1
6GWS3.57.011.514.315.315.411.38.35.63.92.11.10.50.1
7Collingwood0.61.83.46.610.212.614.813.611.49.46.94.32.31.20.50.20.1
8West Coast0.20.82.24.37.310.412.913.714.311.19.46.53.82.00.90.30.1
9Hawthorn0.10.51.32.64.57.210.612.414.113.211.88.96.83.41.60.70.3
10Melbourne0.10.20.51.32.94.97.19.812.314.214.013.29.95.42.91.10.3
11W Bulldogs/FFC0.10.61.12.74.46.99.911.313.014.212.89.96.34.02.00.7
12St Kilda0.10.20.41.11.93.15.18.010.512.715.215.712.57.63.81.70.5
13Essendon0.10.10.50.91.32.74.56.38.811.615.217.313.88.55.32.40.6
14North Melbourne0.20.30.81.93.14.89.013.920.319.915.29.11.7
15Carlton0.10.30.51.22.13.25.810.016.219.819.716.84.3
16Fremantle0.20.30.61.53.26.712.018.523.725.38.1
17Brisbane Lions0.10.31.02.15.210.116.222.626.615.8
18Gold Coast0.10.41.33.57.517.969.4


1 comment:

  1. A couple of things we completely agree on... Collingwood is somehow going to pull a finals year out of thin air... Gold Coast's schedule dooms them to a spoon...Richmond's NOT going to tumble, as the Doggies did, barring horrific injuries (the great unpredictable).

    I'm pegging the Dockers higher, Geelong lower, and if the Eagles somehow manage to hang on to a top 8 spot, I'll eat my hat.

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