And this time we will get it right, for sure. Just like this.
BASIS:Using the FMI methods and systems, the ratings of each team are used to calculate ranges of possible match results, adjust ratings after each and event, and continue iterations for the whole season, then repeat the process again and again.
The rankings used are as per the end of the 2017 season, and are listed below. it is worth noting also that in the lead-up to season 2018, there has been minor tinkering with the calculations and the table below has slightly corrected data versus what was published post 2017's Grand Final.
The league fixture also has an impact, and the handicapping of it is examined as per this post.
And interestingly, the fixture this year, being as assessed as quite balanced (all things considered) has produced an interesting outcome in the season predictions.
LADDER POSITION:With a run of 10,000 simulations of season 2018, making team adjustments round by round the below aggregate data of ladder finishing positions makes for interesting reading.
Like last years predictions, the model lists Sydney a high finishing return for effort. Pipping them this year is the premiers, Richmond.
Other pundit's preference for minor premier, GWS, are relegated down the list under the FMI system.
Also notable is the broader spread of possible outcomes under the FMI system compared to previous years. This is a reflection on the evenness of the fixture as cited previously, as well as the reduced spread in the rankings between 1st and 18th.
We should be set for a bumper year, and another opportunity for a smokie to pinch a flag.
The above is 'end of H&A season' only stuff, so don't go saying this is a call that Richmond will go back to back.
Interestingly, and outside the square is Collingwood ending up in 7th with approx a 64% chance of finishing in the top 8. After them, West Coast round out the 8. Missing from last seasons top 8 is Essendon, who now find themselves with a much tougher schedule. From this, its expected they will drift back.
To take a more top-line look at those finishing possibilities, the below spread coverage might be useful.
Footnote to the above: This year the focus is on ladder positions only. In previous years a 'games won' analysis was also run, but won't be done this year.
MORE DATA.In running ladder predictions for the AFLW this year, a commenter asked about how those numbers sometimes added to 101 or 99 (percent), when clearly they should be 100.
The answer was simple in that the table had rounding errors. This is policy to make a better looking table without ht e clutter.
But given the question was put forward, the table below has all the data.
So knock yourselves out knowing the FMI system has allocated you a 0.1% chance of finishing in [position you are interested in].