Tuesday, 20 March 2018

AFLW 2 - FINALLY FOUR

We reach the AFLW Final this weekend, and what a final four games to round out the season. Adelaide's loss, Brisbane wining, Melbourne and the Bulldogs - huge weekend. All determining the last game of the year.


PREDICTIONRESULTRATINGS CHANGE
5pts40pts-15+14
7pts11pts+1-24
2pts2pts+4-1
2pts21pts+17-8

Oh, look at that. Your old pals at the FMI got all the predictions correct and even an exact margin. Four out of four... at last!

Nice way to finish the season.


And the rankings table post H&A season looks like this.
RANKINGSPre:Final
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Brisbane Lions106014+1
2W Bulldogs/FFC10585-1
3Melbourne10410-
4Adelaide1026-8-
5Collingwood100917-
6GWS932-15-
7Fremantle9292-
8Carlton896-24-

That's a reasonably big fall for the defending champions Adelaide.

And the best two teams play off in the final, separated by only two rankings points.


The Final prediction
HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTION
W Bulldogs/FFCvBrisbane LionsPrinces1pt

Yes the better ranked team is tipped to win, and by the barest of margins.
But this assumes no home ground advantage for Footscray. And in a way, that's true, not playing at Footscray itself. 

The FMI system for the mens AFL GF always assumes no HGA as it is a very different game of footy. So much on the line, such a build-up and other external pressures all act to diminish that HGA effect - is the logic.

If you applied a HGA top the above then yes, it's the Dogs getting the tip.

Nothing like an each way bet on a near 50/50 predicted outcome.


A Final thought - can it be a Grand Final, when there are no other preliminary (i.e. lead-up) finals before it?
Surely it is just the AFLW Final... no?

1 comment:

  1. I'm excited - I've got the exact same situation you do: if I give ANY home advantage to the Bulldogs (which I am, since their fans will surely outnumber the Lions' fans), then they tip to becoming the favorite. (I've got them by 2 points.)

    Also, I totally agree. It's a "Final" - it can't be the "Grand Final" until they put the appropriate semi-final in.

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