Wednesday, 4 April 2018

3. OF COURSE, OF COURSE

EDIT: Thanks to reader Louis for identifying a margin error. Corrections made to all data below.
Obviously doing this from a campsite and via google sheets wasn't providing the best outcome.


It was always meant to be. The only way to breach the social walls around playing on that day was to create it in the charitable spirit of the day in Melbourne. Get a few 'deserving, local' clubs to play on that day and 'make it their own'.

And then later, shape the narrative around quality of spectacle.

Later on some more, it will pass that playing bigger clubs will pull in more dollars for the charity.
And later still, that game will move to the night time, and another day game will be played as well. Maybe between the original Trojan horse teams, or maybe by teams outside Victoria.

But the real battle was won earlier. The walls breached. A day for more footy, gained by subterfuge.


The Wash Up

Rinse. Repeat.
Wrong again on so many levels, though worth noting so was the rest of the tipping community.
Makes for an interesting season though.

PREDICTIONRESULTRANKING PT CHANGES
Adelby18pts64Adelby36ptsAdel7Rich-8
St Kby13pts40Nortby52ptsNort23St K-28
Carlby25pts69Goldby34ptsCarl-23Gold22
GWSby7pts45GWSby16ptsColl-6GWS16
Melbby20pts35Melbby26ptsBris-3Melb3
Esseby9pts42.7Fremby16ptsFrem10Esse-10
W Buby3pts53Westby51ptsW Bu-40West21
Sydnby28pts71Portby23ptsSydn-20Port21
Geelby11pts59Hawtby1ptsGeel-10Hawt12


Ranking shifts after week 2 are interesting, with 2 pairs of positional changes after last weeks 6 team shiftaroo.

AFTER ROUND2ptstable
1Sydney/SMFC1389-200
2Adelaide138370
3Richmond1311-80
4GWS1305160
5Port Adelaide1273210
6Geelong1227-100
7West Coast1187210
8Hawthorn1139120
9Melbourne110131
10Collingwood1097-6-1
11Essendon1072-100
12St Kilda1040-281
13W Bulldogs/FFC1039-40-1
14North Melbourne962230
15Carlton896-230
17Fremantle881100
16Gold Coast808220
18Brisbane Lions779-30


And once again the bottom ranked teams draw closer to the rest.


The Round Ahead

Round three reverts us to footy normality with Friday starts and Sunday finishes, and oddly Gold Coast at home in Perth... because of the Comm Games. 

HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTION
CarltonvCollingwoodMCGCollby20pts
Port AdelaidevBrisbane LionsAdelPortby61pts
MelbournevNorth MelbourneMCGMelbby14pts
Gold CoastvFremantlePertFremby7pts
St KildavAdelaideDockAdelby22pts
Sydney/SMFCvGWSSCGSydnby8pts
RichmondvHawthornMCGRichby17pts
W Bulldogs/FFCvEssendonDockEsseby3pts
West CoastvGeelongPertWestby8pts


With the Suns starting so well, it will be interesting to see if this game so far away turns to a loss and bites them later in the year.
Or if this game becomes the making of them, and the foundation for a first finals tilt.

Four close games again expected, and five if you add in Melbourne vs North Melbourne, tipped by just over 2 goals.

4 comments:

  1. Melbourne won by 26 points, not 12!!!

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    Replies
    1. Wow thanks. I had that wrong and also Freo/Ess.
      I blame being out in the country, with dodgy connection and trying to update via i{Phone and google sheets.

      Corrected

      Delete
  2. Off-topic - does it ever scare you (as it does me) to favor a team by 60 points, as Port is this week? There's no rational reason it should - it's easy to picture a far worse thrashing if the Power gets rolling - but it always seems like we're going on a limb or something! Am I the only one who gets that niggle when my system dictates such a rout? (BTW, I have Port by 43.)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have no issue with a possible 10 goal loss tipped - this is what can happen. I can remember a 100pt tip as well in the past. That one was where I was worried the most.

      Delete