Thursday, 30 August 2018

24: FINALATIONS

Its the end of the home and away season and the end of 10 teams for 208, all except for that scheming and conniving and stuff related free agency and the likes.

Maybe in the coming weeks I'll look at the teams done for the season and do some colourful lines and such.
But in the interim, its time to look back and look forward.

First, the preseason predictions worked out quite well.
This screenshot comes from this post published at the start of the year... that's the top 9 teams selected to finish between 1st and 10th, with really only Adelaide's crash and burn season sitting as an outsider.




The Wash-Up

Another seven from nine.
This remains tedious.

PREDICTIONRESULTRANKING PT CHANGES
Portby11pts59Esseby22ptsPort-22Esse24
Geelby71pts92Geelby102ptsGeel20Gold-14
Richby46pts82Richby3ptsRich-13W Bu16
Collby26pts30Collby9ptsFrem5Coll-5
Sydnby18pts64Hawtby9ptsSydn-13Hawt14
Adelby31pts27Adelby104ptsCarl-31Adel21
Westby15pts38Westby26ptsBris-4West4
Melbby18pts64Melbby45ptsMelb17GWS-9
Nortby18pts36Nortby23ptsSt K-3Nort2

None of the above are overly close, but with a sub 30 ME, its not all that bad.

So your post home and away season rankings look like this:

AFTER ROUND23ptstable
1Richmond1381-130
2Geelong1313200
3Melbourne1304170
4West Coast125940
5Sydney/SMFC1235-130
6Collingwood1232-50
7GWS1213-90
8Hawthorn1203140
9Essendon1202240
10Adelaide1173211
11Port Adelaide1145-22-1
12North Melbourne111220
13Brisbane Lions977-40
14W Bulldogs/FFC947161
15St Kilda932-3-1
16Fremantle86650
17Carlton695-310
18Gold Coast687-140


This year, unlike years past, the best 8 ranked teams will play into September.

Though of course, if Hawthorn or GWS lose by a lot, then Essendon could drift into 8th... or even 7th!


The Week Ahead

Four games for week 1 of the Finals. And they are very close in the last two of the weekend.

HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTION
RichmondvHawthornMCGRichby18pts64
West CoastvCollingwoodPertWestby15pts62
MelbournevGeelongMCGGeelby1pts49
Sydney/SMFCvGWSSCGSydnby2pts52

Effective coin tosses for the Elimination finals... which is just what you need for cut-throat finals.


The September Ahead

Also, as done last year, here is the FMI system look into possibilities on how far your team will go into September.

Everyone is playing this coming Elimination / Qualifying Finals week, so all 8 teams are 100% chance to play.
From there, the numbers get interesting. So here is how to read it.
In the top half West Coast are 26% to play the Semis, meaning they are more likely to win and progress to the Preliminary finals, than Collingwood.

In the bottom half, Melbourne are more likely to progress than Geelong to the Semi's.

SEPTEMBER RUNS
TEAMEF / QF'sSEMI'sPRELIM'sG FINAL
1Richmond10018.889.467.5
2West Coast10026.293.427.9
3Collingwood10073.882.127.0
4Hawthorn10081.234.716.4
5Melbourne10064.251.140.9
6Sydney/SMFC10039.57.60.7
7GWS10060.517.02.9
8Geelong10035.824.816.8
Units above are % chance of playing each week of finals


Otherwise - for the Grand Final, it looks to be Richmond vs Melbourne, by throwing the FMI rankings and current form through the simulation model.

All the Grand Final pairings thrown up are:


GRAND FINAL MATCH-UPS
TEAMCOLGEEHAWMELRICWCE
1Richmond5.211.15.426.513.8
2West Coast1.70.90.22.50.7
3Collingwood3.11.17.71.65.4
4Hawthorn0.81.22.92.81.8
6Sydney/SMFC0.10.10.10.20.10.2
7GWS0.30.50.11.10.30.6
Nominal grand final 'home' team listed down the side of the table, with 'visitor' opponents across the top. 


Again, the above are the % chance of two opponents pairing up for the last game.
While the table above this table had Richmond an Melbourne on 68% and 41% chance to play in the Grand Final, they will meet in only 26% of the simulations.

Also, a reminder from the start of the month.

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