Monday, 10 September 2018

25. THE SIXENING

Limited time to comment this week, but enough for a short burst.
The AFL is making a right hash of its own backyard.
- The Finals scheduling is appalling, but hat do you expect when the whole season and most of 2017 was rubbishly scheduled.
- The management of the AFLW (and I use the term management very loosely) is a farce. The comp should be growing and a force for equality, but it is organised as a sideshow. Horrible horrible management and positioning.
- The Hannah Mouncey 'policy making on the run' is further evidence of a disconnect from ... well footy... and a pandering to PR spinners. So so backwards.

This League. Inclusionist to bring in an elite women's comp that then excludes transgender players, and women themselves by running a half baked comp.
A Fair Dinkum disgrace.

Its sickening.


I mean, geez even the blockheads that run Rugby Squarehead, I mean Rugby League, are making a better fist of a women's comp. 



The Wash-Up.

Fifty percent is fine, given the two tipped wrong were coin tosses by the model anyway... yeah sure, you keep telling yerself that OK.

PREDICTIONRESULTRANKING PT CHANGES
Richby18pts64Richby31ptsRich5Hawt-5
Westby15pts62Westby16ptsWest0Coll0
Geelby1pts49Melbby29ptsMelb22Geel-11
Sydnby2pts52GWSby49ptsSydn-25GWS18


How good the Eagles tip!
Its a very odd year when the model tips 50% strike rate and yet ends with a sub 24 MAE.


Rankings adjust slightly, and Hawthorn are now the 9th best team. Essendon need to keep on not playing, and one day they may be the bestest.
And Melbourne return to second rank.

AFTER Q/EFptstable
1Richmond138550
2Melbourne1326221
3Geelong1302-11-1
4West Coast126000
5GWS1232182
6Collingwood123100
7Sydney/SMFC1210-25-2
8Essendon12021
9Hawthorn1198-5-1
10Adelaide11730
11Port Adelaide11450
12North Melbourne11120
13Brisbane Lions9770
14W Bulldogs/FFC9470
15St Kilda9320
16Fremantle8660
17Carlton6950
18Gold Coast6870



The Week Ahead.

Two more games ahead to get us to a best four.
And fortune favours the home team, not the traveller.

HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTION
HawthornvMelbourneMCGMelbby13pts40
CollingwoodvGWSMCGCollby12pts59


The September Ahead

Time to look ahead at who lines up in the last game, with the time honoured FMI rankings-based simulations.
SEPTEMBER RUNS
TEAMEF / QF'sSEMI'sPRELIM'sG FINAL
1Richmond100100.077.6
2West Coast100100.040.3
3Collingwood100100.083.920.0
4Hawthorn100100.011.92.5
5Melbourne100100.088.157.3
6Sydney/SMFC100
7GWS100100.016.12.4
8Geelong100


Read this as:
- Richmond and West Coast straight through to the Prelims, and then lesser percent chances to feature in the Grand Final,
- Collingwood, Hawthorn, Melbourne and GWS to progress beyond the Semi Finals as per the above percentages.
- No progression for Geelong and Sydney, natch.

So by the above, the most likely GF remains Richmond vs Melbourne. And this is also highlighted by the pairings table here.
GRAND FINAL MATCH-UPS
TEAMHAWMELWCE
1Richmond2.044.231.4
3Collingwood0.411.67.9
7GWS0.11.41.0



Good tipping and good finalsing.

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