Monday, 8 October 2018



After two underdog stories in two years, it really depends on which side of the Nullabor you live on as to who was the outsider in this years Grand Final. The team that finished 13th the year before, or the team widely tipped to not even be in the top 10.

Whatever, for most it was going to be a close one, and even given the explosive first quarter, a close one we got.
The FMI system went for the visitors by three and the end result was by five.


FMI Season data was as good as it has ever been
- Total correct tips at 146, hitting just over 70% correct for the year.
- Targeting a sub 30 MAE on tipping accuracy, the tipping was well under that mark all year, and finished on 27.5.
- The Monash scores were a 200 point improvement on 207, with a total of 1901, and once again a top 5 finish in the Monash Uni rankings.
- Over at the first year of Squiggle tip comparisons, an equal second place finish (on tips), and just one point behind the best.

To the teams, the two finalists both gained slightly this year in the FMI ratings points, and were never in the top three teams all season. But they were the best at the end of a very evenly matched season. And that's all that matters come September.

Overall end of year rankings:

AFTER SFptstable
4West Coast1290310
11Port Adelaide11450
12North Melbourne11120
13Brisbane Lions9770
14W Bulldogs/FFC9470
15St Kilda9320
18Gold Coast6870

Melbourne was the biggest improver over the year, picking up 232 points over the year. The Dees also recorded improvements in 18 of their 24 games.
It should also be noted that second on the improver list was Brisbane, which is great for footy.

At the other end, the Adelaide Crows had the biggest fall, not only from 1st ranked to 10th, but also with -242 ratings points. 
Also Carlton. Even though they were one of the worst ranked teams heading into 2018, Les Blues doubled down and had the second worst loss of rankings points. Amazingly bad.

Anyway, to the game itself, it turns up more grist for the mill on the venue and supposed influence on the result. The majority of maths modelers over at Squiggle went for the nominal 'home' team, so I suggest you contact them to discuss how they applied any HGA theory to the tip.
The FMI system is fundamentally a KISS system where HGA gets applied on all games, but with one exception. The Grand Final. Because it is a game, and a week, unlike any other in the season. And with all that swirls around that, it canny have any usual HGA applied.
Well that's the theory applied here anyway. 


There are some who have read between the lines on twitter, and some who have asked. And I hope you can understand.
For those that haven't understood, with the end of the 2018 season comes the end of the line for so much of what this blog is.

Yes, I've unfollowed everyone on twitter, and at the start of the season suggested there would be less content this year here,
And you can expect less again in 2019. Likely only each rounds post and tips. And maybe not even that.

Its been a fun thing to do over the past 8 seasons, and I've met many good people through it. It gave me a connection back to football that I didn't have for a decade. But the realities - yes several - are that it cant go on like it did in the past.

The world outside of this blog and twitter means I've less disposable time to tool about in this caper for nothing but a comment or two or the chance to make myself laugh.
Also, the field of maths based punditry has been well and truly joined by a raft of others, and you should track them down and read their gear. Because it is just better than what I do.

From what I remember (or how I found others in the space), it was myself, Footy Forecaster and Matter of Stats. Then I learned of Troy, and then Figuring Footy, and the Squiggle over at that flaming pit bigfooty. Then Darren at RankingSW  And later still HPN and The Arc. And then in the last year or two the entries of plusSixOne, Graft and Stattraction.

There is plenty of other content and analysis out there, all brilliant in their presentation and depth of analysis. You are spoiled for choice.

Find them.
Learn from them and challenge them. But be careful because people like Max, Tony, Robert and Darren... they are the gold standard. Be on your game.

So yeah, thanks for following and interacting. Hope its been of value to you.

Oh yeah, just one more thing...

1 comment:

  1. As you know - I am not a stats man, I rank in the low 6-billions globally as a tipster and my footy analysis is based on enthusiasm and amnesia. But still, I admire your work ethic, love the breadth of what you contribute and appreciate your passion. See you one day at the London.