Wednesday, 20 February 2019

AFLW 2019 - ROUND 4

4 comments:

  1. Just to prove someone read this/these posts...
    you've got North listed twice in the before round 4 ranking. The Dogs are now #2.

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    1. Thanks Soups... simple formula copy/paste error. The only accurate one on that table was North (1). All fixed.
      Big Thx

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  2. OK, a question of method - so your prediction of the Kangas by three was extremely accurate, and thus Melbourne's rating changed by less than a point. Yet North Melbourne's went up 24 points? Is the discrepancy because North had no games last season to replace? Or is there something else at play I'm not seeing? (As we've said before, our ELO-FF system is a zero-sum: North went up 1.5 points, and the Demons went down 1.5 in our ratings.)

    Keep up the great work - your transparency is wonderful!

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    Replies
    1. Cheers ActII.
      Basically this system works as per your, both teams get a share of points available, BUT there is also a delay system added in. If a team goes well for 1 week the reverts to type, not all the share of points is handed over. If they continue to do well, then it is delivered. Its to try to smooth out thew week-on-week wild fluctuations and restrain over-estimating teams.
      Also works in reverse too... pulls back on dumping value of teams that played poor in one game.

      The counter to this is it can be slower to recognise a team that has gone south quickly / is in a great vein of form.

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