Thursday, 7 March 2019

2019: ITERATION EIGHT

Once again it is time for the roll out of the season predictions by the FMI system, now into its 8th run around the block. Which means it is also the 8th time for the footy diaspora to largely ignore data that successfully tipped the Eagles to make the finals last season, while other professional pundits had written them off.

BASIS:

Using the FMI methods and systems, the ratings of each team are used to calculate ranges of possible match results, adjust ratings after each and event, and continue iterations for the whole season, then repeats the process again and again.

The rankings used are as per the end of the 2018 season, and are listed below.
The 2019 league fixture also has an impact, and the handicapping of it is examined as per this post.

And interestingly, the fixture this year reverts back to type for the AFL with more imbalance than 2018. It maybe that Collingwood missed a golden chance last year with the most even season the league has dished up for close to a decade (by FMI measures).
The Magpies' 2018 fixture assessment had them with the 15th hardest schedule, and they made a run to the flag. This years has them with the toughest set of 22. This is now their test for 2019.

LADDER POSITION:

With a run of 10,000 simulations of season 2019, making team adjustments round by round the below aggregate data of ladder finishing positions makes for interesting reading again.
The first and most simple view is to look at the top 4 in the list below. Each of Geelong, Melbourne, West Coast and Richmond have a better than 60% chance of top 4 spot.
The next two nearest, Essendon (yes Essendon) and Collingwood both have around 35% chance. That's a marked shift.

Of further interest is a mid table finish for two team with a recent record of late September play. It might be good to not see Sydney and Hawthorn come spring time.

It will be also good to see where Brisbane finish, as there is a chance for them to climb into the 8 (3%) or at least knock on the finals door (27% for 9th-12th).

This year looks set to be a good one. If only we knew how the season will play out with the variations to the rules installed in the off season

Team123456789101112131415161718
1Geelong23.6818.5715.0510.928.386.745.063.892.852.051.580.670.390.090.050.03
2Melbourne19.3616.4813.9911.8310.618.206.144.413.762.341.600.800.290.160.03
3West Coast15.6817.2115.7113.1310.438.346.505.133.362.371.290.630.160.06
4Richmond21.1415.8613.2811.108.887.825.904.874.022.892.051.270.640.190.09
5Essendon5.198.379.7412.0311.7011.5311.309.387.965.743.921.980.870.250.04
6Collingwood6.398.399.4210.9811.0810.8010.3110.058.356.274.082.480.970.360.060.01
7GWS3.976.749.0710.8312.4112.4711.619.758.686.164.432.311.190.240.120.02
8Adelaide2.794.096.137.459.199.9211.1711.4010.709.527.375.302.721.460.640.15
9Hawthorn1.042.393.985.557.539.6611.1111.9413.0411.4410.057.013.351.380.400.110.02
10Sydney/SMFC0.461.111.892.774.485.547.419.2010.9212.7514.1013.148.074.862.520.660.12
11North Melbourne0.180.361.021.812.574.056.248.6411.2214.7816.3915.929.874.511.930.470.04
12Port Adelaide0.110.390.681.432.474.236.139.0910.9514.5016.5515.109.355.322.720.900.08
13Brisbane Lions0.010.030.040.100.210.570.841.382.234.757.1312.7118.9720.1018.469.122.740.61
14W Bulldogs/FFC0.010.070.060.090.220.641.353.055.4611.9822.1424.3320.648.541.350.07
15St Kilda0.040.060.200.541.053.136.6815.6125.8228.9813.693.610.59
16Fremantle0.030.070.330.841.914.899.2917.5942.0317.575.45
17Gold Coast0.010.020.040.170.672.9112.7937.1046.29
18Carlton0.010.070.350.912.8211.4837.3746.99


The above is 'end of H&A season' only stuff. This doesn't say it is Geelong's flag.


Footnote: This year the focus is on ladder positions only. In previous years a 'games won' analysis was also run, but won't be done this year.

Also in years past the above table was 'whole numbers only' with a second table listing the full detail in another blog post.
To save time, the full data only is posted, as messy as it looks.

So knock yourselves out knowing the FMI system has allocated you a 0.1% chance of finishing in [position you are interested in].

2 comments:


  1. Your hyperlink to the fixture review links to your 2018 review, NOT your 2019 review!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks again Soups... corrected.

    ReplyDelete