tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2932408536664759389.post4514143417174600715..comments2023-12-01T19:10:11.055+11:00Comments on FMI: 5. THINKING SHORT TERMThe FMIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00119761964589349965noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2932408536664759389.post-1866412599303005362017-04-28T23:54:13.913+10:002017-04-28T23:54:13.913+10:00Calculations use the current ranking of each team,...Calculations use the current ranking of each team, then determines if they play to that level (and a window around that level) that they record a score in that window.<br />If the two windows overlap, then there is a chance for either team to win. <br />It does look odd that Adelaide are recording 99 wins out of 100 for the next 5 games.<br /><br />Adel ranking is well above either of their next 5 opponents.<br />Ric (1031), Nth (1101), Mel (991), Bri (631), Fre (884).<br /><br />I have also set narrower windows of expectation than others too. Not afraid to make a claim here. CF other predictor models (EG https://thearcfooty.com/2017-projections/) who spread their possible outcomes a lot wider.The FMIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00119761964589349965noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2932408536664759389.post-1812253275094286052017-04-20T23:13:08.251+10:002017-04-20T23:13:08.251+10:00So I would have thought that the expectancy would ...So I would have thought that the expectancy would come from adding the odds 0.76+0.86+0.66+0.86+0.98=4.2. So Crows should win 4 of the next 5 games?<br />Geoff Lambhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03464846339083332263noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2932408536664759389.post-140153062890118532017-04-20T23:06:57.391+10:002017-04-20T23:06:57.391+10:00I am not sure how you can have the Crows winning e...I am not sure how you can have the Crows winning expectancy for the next 5 games at 99%? What am I missing. Using the odds (from Squiggle) for the Crows winning the next 5 are 0.76*0.86*0.66*0.86*0.98 is only about 36%. How are you calculating expectancy? If you have an output of 0 or 1 (lose or win) then wouldn't the expectancy of the first game be 0.76 if they are supposed to win at 76%? Geoff Lambhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03464846339083332263noreply@blogger.com